Welcome to baseballcalculus.com! Forecasts - Click on the following links to see forecasted Batter and Pitcher statistics for 2009.

Batters                                                          Pitchers

Coming soon

• In-season updates of these player stat predictions along with estimated variance in player performance.
• Predictions of the results of every game including the probability of each team winning, the expected number of runs scored, predicted player stats by game, and analysis of these results versus live gambling lines.
• Forecasted standings for the entire league updated regularly along with an assessment of the likelihood of each team to make the playoffs, win the pennant, and win the World Series.
• Optimization tools
  • To evaluate the value of different players to different teams and examine which possible trades and acquisitions make the most sense for specific teams
  • To determine how a team's performance would change with different lineups or different strategies
• And much more, so check back often!

How we do it - These predictions are based on a series of stochastic models developed in my doctoral research at Stanford University. (For more details visit my academic website at www.stanford.edu/~null.) Feedback - As with any model of complex real-world events, these models are a perpetual work-in-progress, so your feedback is welcome and integral in improving them.