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Caveats / Data needs

People have been asking me about these projections, particularly the Game and Season projections, and in particular asking “How good are they?” But what I think they really mean is, “Can I make money off of this?” So I figured I should clarify a few things. First of all, I would NOT recommend taking these projections as truth and trying to get rich off of them. They are generally good and informative, but this effort is pretty large scale and since I am not monitoring all of them, there are a few key developments that could throw things out of line. For example: 1) I use announced probable pitchers, and these sometimes change. The good thing about this is that for specific games, you can see the pitcher I am using. 2) I project lineups based on recent lineups used by the team. If there is reason to expect the lineup to change (such as a trade or player coming off or going on the DL), I won’t catch it. 3) There could be some other random weird glitch in the data that has gone undetected. These issues obviously effect game predictions, but could also potentially significantly impact rest of season projections for a team, if for instance a team has been without its star batter for the last few games, I will likely project him to be out for the remainder of the season, and the team’s projections will suffer. (The White Sox have recently suffered in my projections at the hands of such a circumstance having fielded particularly weak offensive lineups of late). In any case, I would greatly appreciate any and all feedback you have about the site, in particular regarding numbers that look somewhat unbelievable (they just may be). I also like compliments. Also towards these issues above, I would also always welcome with open arms any offers of useful data. In particular: 1) data sources with when players have gone on and are expected off of the DL 2) data on recent trades 3) data on projected trades or teams looking to trade or acquire certain players or sorts of players
brad in Uncategorized on August 19 2010 » 0 comments
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